Much has been written and said about the publics' perception of College Football teams and how it drives the odds makers to adjust lines. It can also be, and has been shown, that anytime the public jumps on a certain team no matter what the league (just look at Cincinnati last week) it most certainly will not win and/or cover the spread. So as we look at this weeks College Football schedule it's time to figure out if early season success of teams who just last year were in a Bowl Game carries into their fourth game of the season. Simply put, do previous years Bowl teams who started this season a perfect 3-0 make us money in their fourth game of the year?
I am sure that going with the general publics' tendency to love the "favorites" the answer to that question is a resounding "YES"! Well, not so fast! Going into the archives the following trends emerge along with additional qualifiers:
Situation: Teams who are now 3-0 and are coming off a bowl game last season.
Teams in this situation are a horrible 68-83-4 ATS when their next game is against a conference opponent (includes 3-8-2 ATS last year).
Qualifier #1: Make them an underdog in this game?
The books sure suck you in on this one as this 3-0 underdog is 8-35 SU & 14-27-2 ATS and if they just happen to be playing a conference opponent who won at least 8 games last season they are a horrible 4-25 SU and 7-22 ATS.
Qualifier #2: This 3-0 team is listed as an underdog, playing a conference opponent who lost or won their previous game by less than 30 points.
In this situation the general public really takes a bath as this perfect club is an unbelievable 0-19 SU and 2-17 ATS. Last season there was one such occurrence when Arizona State visited California and got pasted 49-21.
So there you have it! Don't be fooled into thinking that teams who come out of the gate 3-0 are sure to cover their next game, especially when listed as an underdog. You certainly won't feast in this situation.
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