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Do NFL Big Home Underdogs Really Bark......

Michael  Alexander
Michael Alexander

Michael Alexander is the Founder and Head Handicapper of Alexander Sports.
By: Michael Alexander     Date: Sep 11, 2007
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In Week #1 of the NFL there were certainly some surprises but when it came to large favorites (defined by me as a 6 point or larger favorite) they didn't dissapoint going a very profitable 4-1 ATS. So as we turn our attention to Week #2 the question of whether or not taking big favorites can be profitable certainly is something we need to take a look at. One would think that since large favorites were a profitable endeavor that the oddsmakers, with a game under their belt, would sharpen up the lines to compenstate. Since most certainly adjustments to the lines will be made I decided to look at the other end of the spectrum and see if NFL Big Underdogs were the way to go. Here's is what I found:

Teams Playing as a Big Home Underdog

Trend #1 --Teams at home as an underdog of 7 or more points and lost at home their previous game are a profitable 14-8 (63.6%) ATS. Possible Play: Cleveland.

Trend #2 --Teams at home as an underdog of 7 or more points and lost on the road in their previous game are a profitable 34-22 (60.7%) ATS. Possible Play: Arizona

Trend #3 --Teams at home as an underdog of 7 or more points and won at home in their previous game are a profitable 9-3 (75%) ATS.

All and all it appears that the oddsmakers do adjust and look for the public to conitue to bet on the favorites. Be cautious as the Big Dogs do bark loud to the tune of a 57-33 ATS mark.

In Week #1 Michael showed why he was the #2 Ranked NFL Capper last season at 10Starpicks.com as he racked up an impressive 5-2 mark placing #1! Join Michael at www.Alexandersports.com for more winners.


 



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