Each and every week I will break down the Monday Night Football match up and give you some sort of sports betting advice. In week one we get a rare double header on Monday night with the Patriots taking on the Bills in New England at 7pm et followed by the Raiders hosting the Chargers at 10:15pm both games feature heavily favored teams in the Patriots and the Chargers.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11, 47)

The Bills struggled in the pre-season to generate any type of offense. The first team offense had 15 series and only managed a field goal. Now Owens will play and that is something he did not do in the pre-season and that should give them a big boost. The challenge will be their offensively if the Bills give up points to the Patriots, which I think is a given.

Bills will look to their new no huddle offense, which T.O. is already complaining about, but later said, “No, it’s all right, it just gets you a little winded, and for myself I haven’t really practiced much the last few preseason games so I’m still trying to get myself into shape and that’s coming around.”

Bills will be without their All-Pro tackle Jason Peters who was traded to the Eagles as well as Marsahwn Lynch who is suspended for the first 4 games.

For the Patriots it will be all about Tom Brady and whether or not he can be the player he was before. With many question marks on defense Brady will be the key to the Patriots season. With weapons on offense like Moss, Welker, Galloway, Taylor, and more I believe it will be as if he never left.

Defensively the Patriots are left without Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Hobbs, and now Seymour. Patriots were 10th in the league in 2008 and they really won’t improve this year especially when you will see the offense score fast, keeping the defense on the field longer and more often.

Keys To The Game:

Lee Evans + Terrell Owens vs. Patriots Secondary

The secondary is the weakness of the Patriots as they have veteran Shawn Springs as their #1 along side him is Leigh Bodden a free agent signing and Jonathan Wilhite to play in the nickel. Advantage goes to the Bills in this one as they have two elite receivers in Owens and Evans. Owens is still at the crest of his prime and we have only seen a little bit of what Lee Evans can do.

Patriots Pass Rush vs. Bills Offensive

The Bills simply have too man question marks and many newcomers as well as a few guys that are not playing their most familiar positions. Despite the Patriots losing Richard Seymour in a trade they still have the players to give them the edge in this one. Vince Wilfork will create openings on the outside where Ty Warren, Adalius Thomas could get lose and put the pressure needed on Trent Edwards.

Trends

Buffalo

* Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1. * Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. * Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. * Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.

New England

* Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. * Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC. * Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. AFC East. * Patriots are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf. * Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. * Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. * Patriots are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. * Belichick is 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS against the Bills since joining the Patriots.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10, 42.5)

What can we expect from Ladanian Tomlinson? That will be the key to the Chargers, because we know they have a passing offense, but over Norv Turner’s career it has become clear that he would much rather run the ball than pass. Last year marked a rare time where he passed the ball significantly more than run. With the return of Merriman and an improved defense expect the Chargers to be running the ball more with Sproles and Tomlinson.

LT is certainly in decline his rushing average dropped from 4.7 to 3.8 in 2008, but many are picking him at the age of 30 to have a great year and it is because they are going to be a run first team.

So what can we expect from the Raiders? The Raiders were 5-11 and 7-9 ATS in 2008. The pre season did not leave many fans with much to cheer for as in week 3 the Oakland starters were outscored 31-0 and out gained 344 to 60 yards in the first half.

Raiders had the worst passing offense in 2008 and I’m not confident it will be much better in 2009 although rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey can only help the receivers along with a solid backfield with McFadden and Justin Fargas.

Raiders picked up Richard Seymour last week in a trade and he is expected to play on Monday night. This will be an improving defense that struggled to stop the run in 2008 with Seymour and Greg Ellis to anchor an improving defensive line.

Keys To The Game:

JaMarcus Russell vs. San Diego's pass rush

Russell was able to hold onto the starting QB job and now there are rumors that Jeff Garcia will be traded to the Panthers in a rare midseason trade. Russell only threw for one TD in pre-season, but he looked significantly better and more confident in the pocket. However, the return of Shawne Merriman will be the key in this game as Merriman is coming off an injury that caused him to miss the entire season last year. Merriman is the best pass rusher in the game and he will have his eyes on Russell all night long.

Chris Chambers vs. Nnamdi Asomugha

Asomugha is a shut down corner, despite having a broken bone in his wrist he should still shut down Chambers, but I still do not even consider Chambers the #1 receiver for the Chargers. Look for Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates to get most of the action and have big games. San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+9.5, 43)

Trends:

San Diego

* Chargers are 21-7-4 ATS in their last 32 vs. AFC West. * Chargers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC. * Chargers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. * Chargers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games on grass. * Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. * Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. * Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Oakland

* Raiders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 home games. * Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC West. * Raiders are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. * Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. * Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. * Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1
 

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