Current Odds

The Steelers opened as a 3½-point road favorite last week and the money has since pushed the line higher as Pittsburgh is currently a 6 to 6½-point favorite. This is not a surprise as 63% of the public is backing the favorite according to consensus reports.

The public is more split on the total as only 55% is favoring the Over according to the consensus reports. The oddsmakers opened the total as high as 42½ last week, but it has since dropped down to the key number of 41 in most locations. Weather will not be an issue tonight as the forecast is calling for clear conditions in Cincinnati with a kickoff temperature of 37-degrees.

Injury Report

The Steelers are healthy and enter tonight’s game with only a few injuries. Offensive tackles Flozell Adams and Chris Scott are both listed as questionable, while defensive end Brett Keisel is probable and expected to play tonight.

The Bengals are more banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Cincinnati lost cornerback Adam “Pac Man” Jones to a season ending neck injury two weeks ago. Defensive tackle Tank Johnson injured his knee last week and is listed as questionable, along with linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy who is battling an ankle injury. Defensive end Jonathan Fanene has been downgraded to doubtful with a hamstring injury, while defensive backs Chinedum Ndukwe, Roy Williams, and Johnathan Joseph are all listed as probable and expected to play tonight.

3rd Down Blues

The Cincinnati offense can’t seem to get out of their own way this season. The Bengals have scored 21 points or less in five of their seven games, and the two games in which they scored 24 and 32 points were games in which they were trailing by double digits and scored in garbage time. A big reason for their lack of production has been their inability to convert on third down; the Bengals had five straight 3 and outs in their last game against the Dolphins; they were just 2-for-12 on third down in that game.

The Bengals are 20th in the league in third-down efficiency (37.3%) and quarterback Carson Palmer is last in the AFC and 27th overall in third-down passing going 40-82 for 431 yards with a QB rating of 62.6. He is one of only four quarterbacks in the NFL with a completion percentage on third down below 50%.

Palmer explains the problem: “We put ourselves in some third and long situations instead of using the run game to get into third and short or third and mediums,” he said. “Being able to bring a 4-man rush and still get coverage is a good combination for a defensive team.”

Double Revenge

Pittsburgh lost to Cincinnati twice last season; 23-20 on the road and 18-12 at home. Those results were surprising since the Steelers were 5-1 SU and ATS against the Bengals the three previous seasons. Pittsburgh’s offense was terrible in both games, and they certainly remember those ugly games well.

”I remember the offense sputtering,” Pittsburgh tight end Miller said. “Our defense kept us in the games, but we couldn't really get anything going. They baffled us on third downs. We need to understand what we’re up against going into this game. This is a make-or-break game in their season and we’re only 1-1 in our division. We need to really play well if we're going to go in there and get a victory.”

Before scoring just 10 points in New Orleans last week, the Pittsburgh offense scored 51 points in the two games with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back under center. The Steelers should score in this game as the Bengals defense has allowed 22, 39, 24, and 23 points over their last four games.

Struggling Secondary

Pittsburgh’s defense has good overall numbers on the season; the Steelers allow just 15 points and 302 yards per game while holding teams to just 5.0 yards per play. Those overall numbers hide the fact that Pittsburgh’s secondary is really struggling this season; 243 yards of their 302 yards allowed come through the air.

The Steelers rank just 25th in the NFL is passing defense. In their last four games, they’ve allowed Drew Brees to complete 34 of 44 passes for 305 yards, Chad Henne 257 passing yards, rookie Colt McCoy 281 yards, and Joe Flacco 256 passing yards. Those numbers are unlike the Steelers so there’s got to be something wrong with their back seven.

Safety Troy Polamalu is taking some of the blame. “I think there are times in games where there were a lot of opportunities to make plays, and I didn't make them,” he said. “It doesn’t have anything to do with anything physical with me, and maybe I'm second-guessing myself a little too much.”