by Matt Severance - 10/01/2010

I’m thinking your Survivor Pool was pretty static last week as there really weren’t any big upsets in Week 3 in the NFL. New England over Buffalo, Baltimore over Cleveland and Minnesota over Detroit were the three big favorites last week – I recommended the Ravens as my top choice – and all three won pretty easily. Perhaps the New Orleans Saints losing to Atlanta got a few people, along with perhaps the Rams over the Redskins (St. Louis’ first home win in nearly two years), Seahawks over the Chargers and the Bears over the Packers. But I wouldn’t call any of those huge upsets and the Saints were the only home team among that group to fall.

Not to say I told you so, but my No. 1 steer clear choice last week was the Saints as they were coming off a bye week and facing a Falcons team that gave them trouble in 2009.

As for my Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks, I would say there are only three games that look totally one-sided for the favorites: Detroit at Green Bay, Carolina at New Orleans and Arizona at San Diego – and those will be my three choices this week. However, I’ve already used the Packers (as well as the Titans and Ravens). Every other game on the slate – this is the first week with byes so two fewer choices – could legitimately be won by either team. The Chargers are the top choice.

Have No Fear

San Diego (vs. Arizona) – I hate taking the Chargers this early in the season because they are rather schizophrenic at this time of year under Norv Tuner, hence that 1-2 record. But San Diego is expecting running back Ryan Mathews back this week, while Arizona has lost receivers Early Doucet and Steve Breaston the past few weeks to injury, meaning it’s Larry Fitzgerald and a bunch of guys you’ve never heard of. Think the Bolts might just double team Fitzgerald? Arizona QB Derek Anderson is completing only 52 percent of his passes as it is. Arizona is by far the worst team with a winning record in the league.

New Orleans (vs. Carolina) – Do you realize that Panthers QB Jimmy Clausen had a 0.0 rating at halftime of last week’s game against the Bengals? The rookie was better in the second half, but Carolina’s offense is stuck in the mud. How can a team with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart run for only 87 yards in a week as Carolina did against Cincy? Plus, the Panthers have no receiver able to take pressure off Steve Smith. I know the Panthers are desperate at 0-3, but I think Coach John Fox has lost this team. No way the Saints lose back-to-back games at home.

Green Bay (vs. Detroit) – Again, I’ve used the Packers, when they beat the Bills in Week 2. But if you didn’t listen then this is a good spot to take them. Yes, they will be playing on a short week but they also will be playing pretty angry after imploding on special teams and with penalties against the Bears on Monday. Plus, the Lions will start Shaun Hill at quarterback again, while rookie RB Jahvid Best and No. 2 WR Nate Burleson both may not play. Lions lose their 23nd road game in a row.

Steer Clear

Atlanta (vs. San Francisco) – This has the makings of the ultimate trap game. The Falcons are riding high after a win at New Orleans, while the 49ers were just dominated in Kansas City and have been terrible in their two road games this season. But in the wretched NFC West a 0-3 start might still be fixable. But 0-4? Plus, perhaps new offensive coordinator Mike Johnson is the spark this team needs. Mike Singletary’s job might ride on this game.

Cincinnati (at Cleveland) – The Browns are typically 0-3, but those three losses have come by a combined 12 points and they have led in the fourth quarter of each game. Plus, Cleveland might get Jake Delhomme back this week, although I’m not sure that’s even a good thing over Seneca Wallace. The Bengals’ offense isn’t right, as Carson Palmer has a rating in the mid-50s the past two weeks.

Houston (at Oakland) – Again, it’s too early in the season to take a road team, but Houston’s Andre Johnson is gimpy and apparently will be a game-time call. That’s a big enough injury to steer clear of this game by itself. Oakland might actually be a .500 team at home this year.

So, my choice this week is San Diego, meaning it, Green Bay, Baltimore and Tennessee are off the board. Good luck in Week 4.
 

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