While the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts continue to distance themselves from the rest of the NFL in this day of salary caps and other restrictions designed to create parity, playing at home in the NFL is where you could count on a team to play well (or at least cover)! But after last week's embarrassment in Irving one has to wonder whether or not taking home teams getting points in the NFL is really the bargain it used to be? Out of the 4 road teams favored in this weeks action all but one (all be it the Patriots) are very small favorites. So, discounting the small favorites (defined as 3.5 points or less) let's go back in history and see if homes teams getting 7 or more points bring us home the cash. Scenario #1: Home teams getting 7 or more points after losing their previous game at home. Logic would dictate that teams who lost their previous game at home have something to prove to the fans. This logic bears out as teams in this situation are a very profitable 14-8 ATS since 1997. Scenario #2: Home teams getting 7 or more points after winning their previous game at home. It goes without saying that teams in his situation appear to be on a roll after their previous win at home and look to continue to build on that momentum. Sure enough this situation has produced the highest percentage of winners at 9-3 ATS since 1997. Scenario #3: Home teams getting 7 or more points after losing their previous game on the road. The thought here is that after losing on the road the previous week the home team will flourish back on their home turf. If you played this angle since 1997 you would have produced a profitable 34-22 ATS mark. This week we have the Miami Dolphins in this situation against the Patriots. Sure the Patriots have beat their opponents by over 17 points per game but they are giving 16.5 thus far and do historically have trouble in Miami and history does have a way of repeating itself. Michael has been absolutely tearing it up in the NFL this season and his coming off a perfect 4-0 Sunday that included his Game of the Month Winner! For continued winning visit Michael as www.Alexandersports.com.
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